Bitcoin’s Worst Losing Streak Since 2018: Is BTC Facing a Regime Shift or a Deepening Bear Market?
The Bullish Argument: A Structural Regime Shift
However, not all market watchers view this historic losing streak as a death knell. Mati Greenspan, senior eToro market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, strongly pushes back against the doom-and-gloom narrative, arguing that comparisons to the 2018 bear market oversimplify the current macroeconomic reality.
“What we’re seeing isn’t just weakness. It’s repricing inside a structural regime shift,” Greenspan asserts.
Greenspan believes that while ETF outflows and macro fears explain the timing of the recent price drop, they completely miss the broader recalibration of how global markets are valuing risk in an era of unprecedented uncertainty. He argues that Bitcoin’s original narrative—functioning as a global, neutral alternative to debt-based fiat systems—has remained unchanged since its inception in 2009.
From Greenspan’s perspective, Bitcoin’s breaking correlation with traditional equities is not a sign of weakness, but rather a “structurally bullish” development. If Wall Street continues to treat U.S. stocks as cyclical growth investments while Bitcoin begins to trade more like an independent sovereign hedge against fiat collapse, this early repricing is exactly what long-term holders want to see.
There are also highly bullish on-chain metrics flashing in the background. Accumulator wallet addresses have quietly absorbed an astonishing 372,000 BTC since late December. Furthermore, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI)—a momentum indicator used to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions—has collapsed to its lowest reading in Bitcoin’s entire history. Greenspan notes that when market sentiment becomes this uniformly negative while the underlying network fundamentals remain totally intact, price reversals tend to be incredibly sharp.
“The losing streak narrative focuses on five months,” Greenspan concludes. “The structural story spans decades”.
Looking Ahead: Crucial Price Levels to Watch
As the market attempts to find its footing, analysts have identified several critical technical levels that will dictate Bitcoin’s next major move.
On the downside, $60,000 is acting as the key near-term support level. If the market breaks below this psychological barrier, the next major line of defense is the 200-week moving average, which currently sits just below at $58,500. Historical data shows that even when cycle-bottom signals flash, previous downturns have sometimes experienced a final 30% to 40% capitulation drop before a definitive macro low is established.
Conversely, for Bitcoin to cleanly break this five-month losing streak and signal a true trend reversal, it must decisively reclaim the heavy resistance zone between $68,000 and $72,000. Until that zone is firmly flipped into support, analysts expect the current choppy, downward grind to continue.
Furthermore, JPMorgan analysts suggest that new, comprehensive crypto legislation could ultimately serve as the “spark” needed to pull Bitcoin out of its current rut. Other structural developments, such as the evolution of crypto payments beyond the dead “stablecoin sandwich” model, may also bring renewed utility and investor interest back to the sector.
——————————————————————————–
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why is Bitcoin currently falling? Bitcoin’s recent price slump is attributed to a combination of heavy macroeconomic pressures, including $3.8 billion in ETF outflows over five weeks, escalating global tariff tensions, and a lack of anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have tightened global financial conditions, strengthening the U.S. dollar to the detriment of risk assets like Bitcoin.
How bad is the current Bitcoin losing streak? Historically bad. Bitcoin is on track for its fifth consecutive monthly loss, marking its worst losing streak since the 2018–2019 bear market. It has also suffered its worst first 50-day start to a year on record and is down roughly 52% from its October peak.
Is Bitcoin still correlated with the stock market? The correlation has become highly unstable. Recently, the 20-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq swung wildly from -0.68 to +0.72. While U.S. stocks have remained relatively resilient through recent geopolitical shocks, Bitcoin has sharply underperformed, leading some analysts to believe it is failing as a risk asset, while others see it as an early transition into a “sovereign hedge”.
Has Bitcoin lost its status as “Digital Gold”? Currently, there is a massive divergence between the two assets. Since September, gold has surged by 48% due to safe-haven flows, while Bitcoin has fallen by 41%. The bitcoin-to-gold ratio has suffered a 70% drawdown over the last 14 months, indicating that traditional investors are currently favoring physical gold during this period of geopolitical uncertainty.
What are the key price levels to watch for Bitcoin? Market analysts highlight 60,000∗∗asthecriticalnear−termsupportlevel,withthe200−weekmovingaveragesittingjustbelowat∗∗58,500. In order to break the current bearish trend and regain upward momentum, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the resistance zone between $68,000 and $72,000